In my previous post, I suggested that you take a little time to make some predictions about the next few years. The idea was that, rather than be like the proverbial frog in the kettle, you would have a benchmark to look back at and see if you had been needlessly paranoid, had rationalized events or compromised your values -- particularly Christian values -- or perhaps you are a prophet!
I have made some predictions to myself privately. Here, I just want to share some of the key historical points to be on the lookout for:
1. Immigration -- We should expect some "shock and awe" when it comes to the deportation of undocumented immigrants. Note -- individuals who came legally but then overstayed their visas are not "illegal" immigrants. They are undocumented.
There are also, of course, individuals who entered the country illegally. And, of course, there is a relatively small percentage of immigrants who have committed crimes after being here. The majority of undocumented immigrants would likely work to be documented if they could, but our system is apparently so broken that there might as well be no realistic pathway for most. Congress has refused to fix these problems for over a decade.
A number of things to watch. What happens to the individuals who have been "rounded up"? Are families split? Are individuals who have effectively been here since childhood deported? Is a line crossed to individuals who are actually here legally? Is the deportation even or are Democratic states targeted in a kind of vengeance on their economies (e.g., California, Chicago, New York City)?
2. Economy -- Everyone says that the incoming president was elected because of inflation, but most economists predict that the economy will get much worse if he keeps his promises. The deportation of undocumented workers could have serious economic consequences for the states in which they work, as well as to the American economy in general. It might significantly increase the price of certain foods and goods, for example.
Add to this the prevalent rhetoric on tariffs, which would also likely increase the cost on American goods. The goods that are costing more from Mexico, China, and Canada would result in higher cost in the grocery store. When you combine these two factors, are we headed for a significant economic crisis? To what extent is this just talk, or will these promises be kept?
3. Budget Cuts -- Elon Musk and others aim to make massive budget cuts. Much of these cuts will surely be aimed at services provided to the American people, especially the most needy American people. Will this result in significant suffering among those who do not have enough resources to subsist on their own?
Will cuts to infrastructure actually make it difficult for certain departments of government to do what they are meant to do? FEMA? Will tax cuts cause the deficit to grow even more quickly? Will education become overwhelmingly tribal, where interest groups basically indoctrinate their audiences in whatever bias they want to?
My guess is that the incoming deciders are strongly of the economic philosophy that in post-Soviet Russia was known as "shock therapy." I know an economy professor with this philosophy. The idea is that, if things are fully deregulated, there will be a painful period that will then within a period of months reach a certain equilibrium. This is not of course what happened in Russia. Instead, it facilitated the rise of oligarchs who pretty much own everything.
Bottom line: What will the economic consequences be of some apparently enormous budgetary changes? Will these individuals actually be able to pull off the budget cuts?
4. Media and press impact -- It seems pretty clear to me that Musk took over Twitter to be able to control one powerful channel of influence over the American people. Current conversations over Tik Tok also involve the potential to control what the American people see. There was a joke about buying MSNBC and flipping it conservative. The Washington Post has quickly changed its approach to the news, and CNN has also noticeably shifted already a little to the right. Joe Scarborough met with the incoming president. Meta and Amazon have bowed before the new president.
All these developments will possibly have an impact on future elections and the national narrative. Will there be room for any "loyal opposition" in two or four years? Will current voices of protest largely go silent and dark? When you look at the amount of money Musk poured into Pennsylvania, how "free and fair" will the next elections actually be or will overwhelming financial resources effectively make the next elections a moot point? Will there be voter suppression or even actual voter fraud?
5. Use of the Military -- The norm is for there to be a sharp line between the military and civilian affairs. It would be unprecedented if the American military were used on the American people. There has been rhetoric of firing all the top generals and replacing them with loyalists. Biden just this week urged the military to remember its oath to uphold the Constitution. Will any lines be crossed in this regard? Will the Justice department be used for personal vendettas?
6. World Configurations -- What happens if the US stops supporting Ukraine? What are we to make of the incoming president's comments about annexing Greenland, Canada, Mexico, and the Panama Canal? The president largely ran on a platform of non-interventionism, but the pre-office rhetoric has had more of the flavor of manifest destiny. Which will it be, and what will be the consequences?
7. Extreme weather -- Two weeks ago, 100 mile an hour winds foiled stopping a fire that destroyed 1000s of homes in California. Last year, unprecedented hurricane damage swept through North Carolina. There are more and more flight cancellations, more and more turbulence during flight. The majority position of climate scientists is that the planet is warmer than at any time in human history and that the increase in temperature has been too steep to be part of some rhythmic cycle of warming and cooling.
If these climate scientists are right, will we see more and more extreme weather with each passing year? If they are right, will the devastation be massive and incredibly expensive? Will these forces cause significant migration even within the States?
8. Revival -- It is reasonable to say that if any of the worse case scenarios above were to materialize, we should expect people to do some searching for God. Chaos and uncertainty often drive people to God. So can a deep-down gnawing sense of guilt. Not wanting to face the world can result in an inward turn. Will we see some unprecedented revivals alongside a world gone amok?
These are the kinds of things you might jot down some thoughts on in a journal. Then you can look back at it in a few years and have a laugh or a cry, as the case may be.
No comments:
Post a Comment