It will be interesting to see how Bush's speech tonight will be viewed with the hindsight of history. It has to be the first or second most important speech of his presidency to date.
My impressions and reaction:
I agree with Bush that there are scary prospects for an Iraq right now without American troops. I think he's right that Malaki's government would collapse and the civil war would become much worse and anarchic. I agree that Iraq would become an even greater haven for terrorists. Let me also note that Bush himself has created this situation. Iraq was no safe haven for terrorists under Hussein. I think Basra and the Kurdish north are much better now than they were before, but Baghdad is drastically worse. And since Baghdad is the nexus of Iraq's place in the political map of the region, that makes the current Baghdad far more dangerous to us now than it was under Saddam.
Having said that, good luck on his proposal having any real effect. The only real hope I heard in his speech were the things he said he would hold Malaki accountable for: policing of groups like Al Sadr, oil for the Sunnis, rebathification. If Bush can get the Iraqis to do this, this would be significant.
But I doubt 20,000 troops will accomplish anything lasting at all. Perhaps Bush should have one last shot, although I mourn the billions of dollars and extra 1000 American lives it will waste in the process. I hope it succeeds.
Bad tastes in my mouth: Principally two. First, the problem in Iraq is not terrorism and the terrorists are not the primary problem right now. The problem are the Shiite death squads and people like Al Sadr. I have no idea how to reign them in. They're good at laying low until we leave, and we simply cannot stay forever. They're the ones who lynched Hussein.
The second taste is this impotent talk about freedom and the talk of brave Iraqis. Who are they? The ones sneeking around dragging Sunni's out of their houses? We are neck deep in real politique here. Drop the vacuous ideological rhetoric that means absolutely nothing about now.
These are not democrats. This is a tribal group culture. Our freedom is great and would be great for them. But they aren't built to want it. They don't draw paintings of liberty valiantly holding the flag amidst the death around her.
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clap. clap. clap. I agree. I would also like to wonder how many more Iraqis need to die. The last, by percentage of dead to actual number of citizens, death count for them would have the equivalent of something like one million Americans dead. That would not be acceptable under any circumstances. I'm left to wonder what it is that we are truly, truly accomplishing there.
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