Saturday, October 25, 2008

Colleges the Next Bubble?

This piece on MSNBC is not the first time this thought has come up around my parts, but it is gives flesh to the fears. Historically, local community colleges and cheaper public institutions actually can see increases in the number of students during a financial crisis. But expensive private institutions are another story.

IWU's board is financially conservative, so the stock market decline will hurt us less than many other places, but it does hurt. We will have to see whether it becomes really hard to get student loans in the Spring and Fall, above the $10,000 a year the government offers. Let's just say that while IWU is less expensive than most private institutions of our sort, it's over double that when you include housing and such.

Professor Wilbur Williams has long decried the amount of debt our students are racking up, how it is almost impossible for some of them to go into ministry because they can't find a church that pays enough to pay off their student loans. We may be about to see a correction in that market!

And what of our adult programs? Did I hear just this week that GM is suspending funds for education? I know health care for their retirees is about to turn into $3000 a year and good luck. As a joke I told my parents they should vote for Obama :-)

IWU is planning to build a new dorm and to open up dozens of new adult sites. What will come of these plans if the college bubble begins to burst?

IWU's MDiv, currently pending official accreditation approval, would be very inexpensive if we can go ahead with the tuition and scholarships that we've talked about (no comment on specifics :-). It might actually do even better in hard times than it would have, although for very unfortunate reasons! As for the building we were hoping for...

Hard financial times may be ahead for the private college, and we may see some end up closing or consolidating. I sure hope not. And I'm certainly not longing for the days like my grandfather had at Frankfort Pilgrim College during the Great Depression, where sometimes his pay was watered down soup in the cafeteria.

3 comments:

Keith Drury said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Keith Drury said...

Yep... I agree, the coming recession/depression will hit everyone--education too. Just the talk of a recession will hit us all... let alone what's coming.

As for IWU, in a depression debt is a curse and cash is king. IWU's long time policy of pay-as-you-go in building and expansion will now start to pay back (assuming a cash stash). The experts expect scores of private colleges under 2000 with heavy debt to collapse in the coming decade. That could happen resulting in a shuffling of students just like is now happening among banks--ending up with fewer and larger Christian colleges. the larger colleges without debt will be the ones that survive.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of which, here's a related story of a Christian college closing:

http://www.christianchronicle.org/article2158546~Cascade_College_to_close_after_spring_semester